Wednesday, October 22, 2008

Welcome to consumer track

Welcome to this blog. This aims to provide a realtime modern anthropology of events impacting USA consumer society. The credit bubble will be the main theme that cuts across all posts. We will examine the fallout of the credit bubble unwind or the successful re-inflation. Inflation would be an obvious result of the latter while deflation would be the result of an unwind.

Anything related to consumer behavior will be discussed such as: store closings, layoffs, government stats, interest rates, bank lending, federal debt, government bailouts, corporate earnings and filings, commercial real estate, and anything else relevant.

My bias will definitely show through in the forthcoming posts, so I will use this as a chance to give background to it. The current USA economy should hardly be called that. When consumer spending of borrowed dollars on mostly imported goods is the driver of your economy you are headed for doom. If scalp commissions from buying and selling there imported goods or housing is the only value-add we are capable of then the future looks bleak. When advertising goes into a bubble to convince people that they should buy and what it should be then you don't have a solid foundation. With the federal debt going ever higher and our ability to service it ever lower imagine a situation when our creditors decide they have better things to do with their money or the government defaults. In those cases our imports would virtually shut off and we'd be required to do some production to meet our needs. One bright data point is that we are able to feed our populace and have excess, which would be tradable for oil, so we would not end up in hopeless chaos.

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